Mike at Episteme just told me that I haven't responded to his Security Blog Chain letter fast enough so I suppose that now my hair is going to fall out and my kids will cost me a fortune. (well with six kids you can count on the last one regardless of ignoring a chain letter)
I think I will have a little fun with this one.
1. 30 percent of the predictions we make will be flat out wrong but we will conveniently forget that we made them. (or better yet read them in a way that makes them seem prescient anyway)
2. The only reason we do better than random on the accuracy of the predictions is because some of the items are so easy to foresee that my 13 year old pointed them out two years ago.
3. Something bad will happen in the next year.
4. Some good things will happen next year.
5. After pointing out only the items we were right on we will congratulate ourselves then make another series of lists next year.
ok now that the obligatory curmudgeonous has been done the next five will be a bit more in line with the intent
6. There will be one or more worms released targeting SCADA systems specifically and using vulnerabilities specific to them. Expect them to effect both Historians and some PLC's.
7. There will be several fairly significant outages related to SCADA security failures but they won't be publicly identified as such. Possibly even a huge one. (left myself some leeway on that one didn't I)
8. Organizations (regardless of the type) that downplayed or reduced the capability of their Information Security teams will pay significantly in terms of incidents, stupid and improperly configured controls, and lost opportunities. (Most of them won't admit it though)
9. Vendors that are able to encompass the concept of measurable layers in security will emerge (or in the case of the few that are already out there do well financially)
10. Improperly performed vulnerability scans on control systems will get several people fired (or close to it) They might even be related to #7. - This one is for you CNI Operator
Oh Yea # 11
11. My Kids will cost me a lot of money but be worth every penny.
I'll Tag Digitabond now. Give us your predictions Dale or your hair will fall out and you will be forced to rely on blog marketed consulting gigs for income. (oh wait)